The gap between a leader's knowledge and operational reality compounds daily. From historical empires to the spring 2026 crisis: the mathematics of surprise.
Only my opinion, but I think at least half of Synder's 13 points are based in fragile concepts on what makes up an antifragile superpower. That said - I think your perspectives are more common sense and testable than Synder's politics.
Sharp read. Half of @snyder 's pillars sit on fragile premises. What counts as "elite" or what makes a healthy international order is contestable from multiple directions.
That's part of why compound ignorance is the more durable layer of the argument. It doesn't require agreement on which pillars matter. It only requires that the leader has stopped reading the briefings about whichever pillars do.
This is a great Article! Thanks!
Only my opinion, but I think at least half of Synder's 13 points are based in fragile concepts on what makes up an antifragile superpower. That said - I think your perspectives are more common sense and testable than Synder's politics.
Sharp read. Half of @snyder 's pillars sit on fragile premises. What counts as "elite" or what makes a healthy international order is contestable from multiple directions.
That's part of why compound ignorance is the more durable layer of the argument. It doesn't require agreement on which pillars matter. It only requires that the leader has stopped reading the briefings about whichever pillars do.
The mechanism survives the pillar-list.
I concur